All the News That's Fit to be Tied

I have an axe to grind, but unlike the New York Times, I freely admit it.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Electoral Votes, Anyone?

Doing the math is one of our favorite occupations here at The New Narrative and this week we think that the math puts the lie to the mainstream media's belief that Obama will win the Democratic nomination and further that he will be the next President. We were correct in our prediction that neither Hilary nor Obama would have enough votes to win the nomination by the end of the primary season, so we should be taken seriously on this as well. Obviously the mainstreamers want to pick the President because, like the Democratic super delegates who do not completely trust the elected delegates, the mainstream media does not trust the voters to make the right choice. So they have put forth statements based on polls that they designed. For example, Hilary dominates among lower class, uneducated women voters, while Obama is the choice of the well-educated, more intelligent voters. Which would you rather be? There are also other implied attitudes. If you are a white voter and do not want to vote for Obama, it's possible that you may a have a reason that is not racist, but it’s not very likely. There have been many obvious attempts at making your mind up for you through the use of polls, surveys, etc, and The New Narrative has been talking about them for months. Our readers, at least, have an idea of who is trying to pull what strings in the upcoming election. As the Democratic nomination battle nears the end of the Primary contests and the rules committee takes on the issue of seating the Michigan and Florida delegations, the New Narrative has been looking at the Electoral Vote contest that will decide who will be President on Inauguration Day in 2009. There are 536 votes in the Electoral College and 270 are required to win the Presidency. The November election is a winner take all contest in most states. If the Democrats have more votes in a state they get all the Electoral votes of that state. The same is true for Republicans. There are one or two proportional representation states, which have so far proved to be inconsequential. We decided to look at the results of the Democratic Primary in Electoral College terms. Before we start take note our results do no reflect the South Dakota and Montana primary contests, the Florida and Michigan situation and the Texas Primary, which is confusing because it counts both voting and caucuses in a weighted manner. Obama has won 29 Primary contests including the District of Columbia. Hilary has won 17. If they won the same states in the general election Hilary would have 230 electoral votes and Obama would have 227. More importantly, if you look at the vote count of states the Democrats won in the 2004 Presidential race you will see that Hilary would have 121 electoral votes compared to Obama’s 52. In the all-important battle-ground states, which the Republicans and Democrats split with 76 electoral votes each; neither candidate gets enough electoral votes to win. Continuing this analysis we discover that although Obama has won 29 states in the primary, only 12 of those states went Democrat in the general election providing a paltry 52 electoral votes. The remaining 175 electoral votes went to George W. Bush. In Hilary’s case the Democrats won 7 of the 17 states she won in the general election, but they were high-value electoral states like California (55), New York (31), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), New Jersey (15) and Massachusetts (12). Her seven victories provide 121 electoral votes in all. The other 109 went to George W. Bush. The New Narrative cannot be the only analysts looking at these numbers. If the map of the battle ground states remains the same, and there is no reason to expect it to change dramatically, and Texas, Florida, Michigan, South Dakota and Montana vote as they did on 2004, its very hard to see how Obama can win the electoral college vote nationally, whereas a contest that features Hilary as the candidate has a greater potential for a Democratic win. Either way the Democrats must hold all the states they won in 2004, plus pick up a combination of states that includes Florida, Ohio or Virginia, noting that some analysts are saying Pennsylvania will be in play for the Republicans in the upcoming election. If the Democrats hold they will have 249 votes, not counting Michigan (17), which they carried in 2004. If the Republicans hold they will have 245, not counting Florida (27). So almost any way you slice this pie the election will be close and the traditional battle ground states will make the difference. The question for the Democrats is which candidate is likely to do best in the Electoral College contest? Hilary has won all the big Democratic electoral prizes (New York-31, and California-55), with the exception of Illinois (21). In 2004, the Republicans won the Electoral College contest 286 to 252. Does choosing Obama put any state that went Democrat in 2004 at risk? If so Hilary will have to be the Democratic choice for 2008.