Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Clinton, Obama, the Real Count
Have you noticed that while the media is proclaiming Obama has gained "presumptive nominee" status many reports include adjectives like "effectively," or virtually assured" to describe his win. That is because in reality neither Obama nor Clinton has enough pledged delegates to win the nomination outright. Obama has 1,764 pledged delegates and Clinton has 1640. Without super-delegates, who actually do not vote until the convention, the Democrats will have a brokered convention unless Hilary resigns from the campaign and takes second best. Super-delegates can declare support, but it only matters psychologically. They still have to vote, and just because they claim to back such and such a candidate there is no reason why they cannot change their mind. If the remaining undeclared supers support Hilary and for some reason 100 of Obama’s supers change their mind Hilary can win the big prize. And, while that does not seem probable at the moment stranger things have happened. This being case it makes you ask yourself why they are telling you over and over again. Why is it such a big headline that Hilary is suspending her campaign? The primaries are finished so there's nothing to do except wait for the convention when the real action will begin, unless she quits now. So we’re guessing that Hilary will wait until at least the first ballot to see what happens no matter what she may say publicly. If another photo of Obama at a Palestinian fundraiser emerges, stronger connections to Toney Rezco are established, or questions continue to emerge about his past associations, he could be fatally flawed no matter what kind of historic breakthrough his candidacy represents.